From a friend: “1. What’s the probability of a HS athlete going pro? 2. Suppose we know a pro athlete. What’s the probability she was a college athlete?”
So I was thinking about my favorite intuitive illustrations and explanations of conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem, e.g.
I asked for help here, there’s some good discussion: https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2407913/is-it-possible-to-divide-a-square-into-four-parts-of-arbitrary-size-with-two-lin
One cool thing about this is that you can feel out which things are linear and which are not. The slope of the diagonal line is independent of P(A), which I would not have intuited. And P(A|B) and P(A|¬B) are nonlinear functions of P(A), P(B|A), and P(B|¬A), which I don’t think I had any intuition about, but feels central to a lot of counterintuitive results of conditional probability questions.
As nice as it is to “feel out”, I want to be able to SEE any of those things I feel — spatialize the state space. Plot everything as a function of everything else, see the steepest slopes, marginal sensitivities, etc. A kind of phase space, idk. Ideally with the same visualization. Explode it along a third axis of all possible values of the current parameter… yessssssss that’d be so good, so doable. Whichever parameter you’re currently holding, explode out all possible values along the z-axis, so you can see the nonlinear effects of dragging by dx.
I still want to make something that captures some feeling I have of weighing prior and posterior confidences, and the updating flowing one way or the other accordingly, almost hydraulically.